You’ve known for ages this is a tough gig, but you probably don’t know HOW tough.
Here are some numbers to make that plain.
Confusingly, or perhaps ironically, or perhaps mockingly, they come from organizations that have been selling change management solutions for decades. You have to start wondering how good those solutions have been.
Change is faster and more ubiquitous than ever
“The average employee experienced 10 planned enterprise changes in 2022, up from two in 2016. And there is no reason to expect the pace to slow.” (a 2023 Gartner report)
Ten enterprise changes in a year? Can we cut to the chase and just call that “all the time”?
Change fails (even) more than ever before
“Only 12% of business transformations achieve their original ambition.” (a 2023 Bain report)
An 88% failure rate. (It makes that infamous McKinsey “70%” rate look positively aspirational.)
Digital transformation fails (almost) every time
“5% of those companies involved in digital transformation efforts reported that they had achieved or exceeded the expectations they had set for themselves.” (a 2024 Bain report)
I’m not entirely sure what “digital transformation” means these days (do you? Hit reply and tell me what you think it means), but it feels like it’s most of the change most of the time. A 95% failure rate. 19 out of 20, kaput.
Leaders aren’t ready or able to lead change (whatever they think)
“Just 8% of executives demonstrate the ability to lead change effectively, leaving a full 92% of top leaders unprepared to steer their organizations through transformation.” (2026 DDI report)
In the same way, 90% of people think they’re “above average drivers”; there’s probably a similar level of delusion amongst these leaders about how ready they are.
Employees are no longer willing to support change (aka put up with all this BS)
“The share of employees willing to support enterprise change collapsed to just 38% in 2022, compared with 74% in 2016.” (that same 2023 Gartner report)
Employees aren’t stupid. Their lived reality is all that these numbers suggest. No wonder they’re skeptical, scarred, scared, and exhausted.
Don’t (totally) panic
There are answers coming. Not “The Answer” or “The Model” because clearly that’s not a thing (and beware of anyone trying to tell/sell you otherwise).
But glimpses of new truths and counterintuitive moves that can nudge the odds to be a little more in your favour.
You might share this newsletter with your project’s sponsor, just so they know, *really* know how hard this stuff is: for you, for them, for the employees, for the organization.
Next week, the First Rule of Change. You might even be able to guess what that might be.
Thanks for doing the work. I’m glad you’re here.
MBS
